A US president entering midterm elections with a 32% approval rating is not a domestic-only problem. For Philippine exporters, BPO operators, and anyone whose peso-denominated income touches dollar flows, it is a signal that the political environment shaping American trade and fiscal policy remains volatile and unpredictable.
The core concern for Filipino businesses has never been Trump's popularity per se, but what his administration controls: tariff decisions, executive orders on trade, and the broader credibility of US commitments to partners in Asia. A president with historically low approval typically faces a Congress that is either hostile or, in the case of midterms, potentially flipped. If Democrats retake either chamber in November 2026, the practical effect on Philippine trade could be mixed. A divided government might slow new tariff actions, but it also makes legislative certainty harder to achieve on anything from infrastructure spending to immigration policy that affects the roughly 4.5 million Filipinos in the United States.
For the BPO sector, which generates tens of billions in annual revenue and employs over a million Filipinos directly, US political turbulence creates a specific anxiety. Every administration cycle brings renewed rhetoric about "reshoring" jobs. A weakened president with low approval may feel more pressure to perform toughness on trade to energize a base, even if the actual policy follow-through is limited. Conversely, a weakened president may lack the political capital to push through disruptive executive actions. The uncertainty itself is what moves markets and boardroom decisions.
What to watch over the next two months is not the final approval number, but the composition of Congress after midterms. A unified government in Washington, even with an unpopular president, means faster execution of trade actions. A divided government means gridlock but also unpredictability, because executive orders can still bypass Congress on tariffs under existing trade authority.
For Philippine investors, the practical takeaway is hedging. The peso tends to weaken during periods of US fiscal uncertainty and risk-off sentiment. Exporters with dollar receivables benefit; importers of raw materials and fuel do not. Anyone with a business dependent on US consumer demand should assume the next several months will bring headline-driven swings in both the peso and in trade policy announcements, and plan cash flow accordingly rather than waiting for political clarity that may not arrive until after the midterms.